and then after the election higher into the year. i think that's the way it will play, that's the way it played the past couple years. i think it playses that way here. >> is it dependent on what solution they have for the fiscal cliff, if any? >> the body language i get is that it sounds oxymoronic, but they'll get hc-- postpone the mandated spending cuts and spend the bush tax cuts. so i think that's off the table here at last in the short run. >> if we kick the can down the road another six months or so, what will that mean the difference of the bush tax cuts extending for six months or not? >> well, it's good news and bad news. the good news is that all the talk about 4%, 5% of gdp hitting in the first quarter that won't happen. the politicians may be ineffective in many ways, but they won't allow that. at the same time, if we just keep kicking the can down the road, well be addressing this uncertainty every since months. we saw it at the end of 2010, we saw it again at the end of 2011. if we just keep doing this every six months